4G – The highly anticipated launch of 4G LTE network by more telecom operators and also use of the better performing 1800 MHz frequency band for the 4G connectivity will be the top trend of telecom in India. The key player in the 4G LTE launch will be the new telecom operator led by Mukesh Ambani’s RIL – Reliance Jio , which has pan-India 4G license. Reliance Jio will be quite aggressive in its network launch as it will be the new entrant in the already competitive telecom market and also its parent company, with huge cash on hand, has shown keen interest in telecom. This will make the market more competitive and the price-war (like the previous 1-paisa per second price-war) will start in the telecom sector from which customers will benefit.
Public Wi-Fi – With Indian governments announcement of smart-cities, public Wi-Fi hotspots will be the another hot trend in 2015. Government has already started implementing public Wi-Fi hotspots in public areas like railway stations, starting from the New Delhi railway station.
Broadband – Wired internet connectivity (wired broadband) is another area where we will see progress this year. Government has already announced in the budget to connect all the villages in the country with high-speed fibre-optics network. But we do not expect this implementation to be on-time or smooth. Government has already burned huge cash(via BSNL) in implementing WiMax which failed badly to provide any connectivity in the villages. This might be govt.’s long term goal and the govt. is no hurry to implement it.
VoIP via WhatsApp and others – This is most anticipated trend of 2015 but we are not so excited about it because the telecom operators will fight tooth and nail to stop/make-it-less-attractive app based VoIP service in India. The hugely popular cross-platform mobile messaging apps like WhatsApp will launch the VoIP telephony option in which users can make voice calls using the internet connectivity, the same way they currently use to send SMS/files to their contacts. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) service was already there in the market but due to low internet connectivity and less number of smartphones it was under-used. But now with availability of sub-Rs.5,000 Android/Windows smartphones and launch of 4G/3G HSPA+ , the VoIP service is expected to be quite popular. You can still make voice calls over the Internet via apps such as Skype. Telecom operators have already lost one of their source of income (SMS) due to messaging apps like WhatsApp/Line. It will not want to lose or have dent in their main source of income – the voice calling. But I think they have to understand that they have to change and improvise with the change in technology over the years. They should concentrate more on data usage as the revenue source as more and more people will increase data consumption on smartphones (in apps/media). Recently Airtel announced separate data plans for VoIP services ! It was hugely criticised and Airtel has taken them back for the time-being.
Here are the PWC India’s predictions of the Telecom trends in 2015 in India :
#01 LTE to become mainstream in India as well: In 2015, we will witness multiple Indian players launching 4G on a more efficient 1800 MHz spectrum . Indian subscribers will adopt 4G wholeheartedly to satiate their need for mobile data. We expect 4G LTE subscribers to reach 10 million to 15 million by December 2015 driven by competitive pricing, superior network experience and affordable smartphones.
#02 Public wi-fi as a bigger phenomenon; wired broadband to remain work-in-progress: India will see a significant spurt in wi-fi hotspots driven by both the government ‘smart cities’ and ‘digital India’ as well as private sector initiatives. However, wired broadband for retail consumers is likely to remain work-in-progress by the end of 2015.
#03 Wearables in healthy lifestyle space and security apps for smartphones: In the wearables space, Indian consumers have shown most interest in buying fitness monitors (80%), smart watches (76%) and internet-enabled eyeglasses (74%). Price points are expected to go down with Chinese and local manufacturing. Increasing penetration of smartphones and their ability to carry confidential subscriber data will be a significant driver for traction in security applications for smartphones.
#04 Unconventional data monetisation options to appear: Given the steadily increasing divergence between data revenues and cost, a trend that will likely sharpen in 2015, mobile companies will start looking at unconventional monetisation options. These will strengthen internal capabilities to offer differentiated network experience (‘smart pipes’), as well as harness the extended ecosystem including OTT plays.
#05 Intense competition foreseen in the telecom industry due to delayed M&A activities: Current M&A guidelines have not been able to stimulate any consolidation in the sector despite all policymakers expressing the need for it. With new network launches expected in 2015, the rapidly growing data market will witness intense price competition and will rekindle memories of 2010 voice-led price wars
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