Scientists to begin 100-year study on artificial intelligence

Stanford University will lead a 100-year effort to study the long-term implications of artificial intelligence in all aspects of life.

Stanford University has invited leading thinkers from several institutions to begin a 100-year effort to study and anticipate how artificial intelligence (AI) will affect every aspect of how people work, live and play. This effort – called the One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence, or AI100 – has been initiated by computer scientist Eric Horvitz, a former president of the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence.

In 2009, Horvitz hosted a conference at which top researchers considered breakthroughs in AI and its influence on people and society. While the group concluded that the advances have been largely positive, their debate highlighted the need for longer-term studies of the implications. Now, along with Russ Altman, professor of bioengineering and computer science, Horvitz has formed a group that will begin a series of periodic studies on how AI will affect automation, democracy, ethics, law, national security, privacy, psychology and other issues. These subjects are outlined in a white paper.

"Artificial intelligence is one of the most profound undertakings in science, and one that will affect every aspect of human life," said John Hennessy the President of Stanford University, who helped initiate the project. "Given Stanford's pioneering role in AI and our interdisciplinary mindset, we feel obliged and qualified to host a conversation about how artificial intelligence will affect our children and our children's children."

Five leading academicians with diverse interests will join Horvitz and Altman in launching this effort. The seven researchers will together form the first AI100 standing committee. It and subsequent committees will identify the most compelling topics in AI at any given time, and convene a panel of experts to study and report on these issues. Horvitz envisions this process repeating itself every several years, as new topics are chosen and the horizon of AI technology is scouted.

"I'm very optimistic about the future and see great value ahead for humanity, with advances in systems that can perceive, learn and reason," explains Horvitz, who is launching AI100 as a private philanthropic initiative. "However, it is difficult to anticipate all of the opportunities and issues, so we need to create an enduring process."

Altman, who studied computer science and medicine with Horvitz at Stanford during the late 1980s, said a university is the best place to nurture such a long-term effort: "If your goal is to create a process that looks ahead 30 to 50 to 70 years, it's not altogether clear what artificial intelligence will mean, or how you would study it," he said. "But it's a pretty good bet that Stanford will be around, and that whatever is important at the time, the university will be involved in it."

AI100 is funded by a gift from Eric and his wife Mary Horvitz. They envision that the program, with its century-long chain of committees, study panels and growing digital archive, will remain a centre of vigilance as the future unfolds: "We're excited about kicking off a hundred years of observation and thinking about the influences of AI on people and society. It's our hope that the study, with its extended memory and long gaze, will provide important insights and guidance over the next century and beyond," said Horvitz.

Long-term thinking will be vital if humanity is to survive and prosper in the future. More and more people are now recognising its importance as demonstrated by efforts such as the Long Now Foundation, Singularity University, the 100 Year Starship project, the climate projections of the IPCC and indeed this website,Future Timeline. The group of scientists who will join Horvitz and Altman in forming the first AI100 committee – and their comments – are listed below.

Barbara Grosz

Higgins Professor of Natural Sciences at Harvard University and an expert on multi-agent collaborative systems

"I'm excited about the potential for AI100 to focus attention on ways to design AI to work with and for people. We can shift the discussion about the societal impact of AI from the extremes to positions that take into account the nuances of societal values, human cognitive capacities and actual AI capabilities."

Alan Mackworth

Professor of computer science at the University of British Columbia and the Canada Research Chair in Artificial Intelligence, who created the world's first soccer-playing robot

"This study will provide a forum for us to consider critical issues in the design and use of AI systems, including their economic and social impact."

Tom Mitchell

Professor and chair of the machine learning department at Carnegie Mellon University, whose studies include how computers might learn to read the Web

"We won't be putting the genie back in the bottle. AI technology is progressing along so many directions and progress is being driven by so many different organisations that it is bound to continue. AI100 is an innovative and far-sighted response to this trend – an opportunity for us as a society to determine the path of our future and not to simply let it unfold unawares."

Deirdre K. Mulligan

Lawyer and a professor in the School of Information at the University of California, Berkeley, who collaborates with technologists to advance privacy and other democratic values through technical design and policy

"The 100-year study provides an intellectual and practical home for the long-term interdisciplinary research necessary to document, understand and shape AI to support human flourishing and democratic ideals."

Yoav Shoham

Professor of computer science at Stanford, who seeks to incorporate common sense into AI

"The complexities of the field have tended to give rise to uninformed and misguided perceptions and commentaries. This long-term study will help create a more accurate and nuanced view of AI."